Then you can maybe become a winner in high-stakes poker games. In the early days of online poker, a fortune could be made with very little poker experience and knowledge. But these days it takes an incredible amount of hard work and natural ability to make a living playing any form of poker. A talent that, along with hard work and study, is necessary to make a living playing poker online, especially to be among the best players in the poker rooms. It is true that the skills needed to play poker can be learned over time, but some people will need much more time to master the game than others.

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(After you read this post, you might want to check out my follow-up to it here.)

I tell a lot of people not to play large-field online MTTs for a living. I’ve always thought that the variance is just way too high for most professionals to trust their livelihood (and sanity) to large-field MTTs instead of cash, smaller-field MTTs, or STTs. But, admittedly, I’ve given this advice without any direct evidence to back it up. I’ve been meaning for a while to see what the numbers say, and this post will be a tentative first step.

Ideally, what I’d like to do is do a nice controlled study where I pick a few representative players based on past results and use their results over the next few months as my data. (Alternatively, I could take the results of one of the large backing groups. If anyone who backs 20+ people would be down to share some information, let me know.) But, that requires more motivation than I’ve been able to muster, so I decided to do a much rougher study: I grabbed Shaun “SFD” Deeb’s tourney results from OPR (with Shaun’s permission) and played around for a few hours. Here’s what I found:

I used Shaun’s results from January 2009 to present on Stars and FTP. I filtered for buy-ins between $55 and $216 and included only NLHE tourneys with at least 181 entrants. OPR doesn’t record rebuys, so I removed rebuy tourneys. This left 3,049 tourneys with an average buy-in of $119.72 in which Deeb earned $294,027 with an awesome ROI of 81% and an ITM of 11.5%. Obviously, not many people can play or run as well as Shaun Deeb, but these results provide a starting point.

Say you are Shaun Deeb, you really do have an ROI of 81%, and you’re going to play 1,000 of these tourneys. What are the odds you make money? What are the odds you make at least $50k? Etc etc. Here are the results of one thousand Shaun Deebs each playing one thousand tourneys:

In particular, Shaun loses over a 1,000 tournaments sample about 13% of the time, and he makes less than $50k about 35% of the time (with an EV of about $100k). Of course, the upside is pretty good too–He makes over $200k about 14% of the time and over $300k almost 4% of the time.

Here’s the same data for a larger sample of 3,000 tournaments:

Over 3,000 tourneys, Shaun wins about 98.6% of the time, and he wins over $150k over 82% of the time. He made over $900k once in my 1,000 trials ($915,134) and over $600k about 6% of the time.

But, say you’re not Shaun Deeb. I can make a lower ROI player by simply taking Shaun’s distribution and lowering the payouts. (For an ROI of x, multiply the prizes by (1+x)*0.554 .) This isn’t very accurate, but it’s good enough for my purposes (especially since Shaun has a low ITM%). Here’s the 1,000 tourney histogram for a 20% ROI player:

As you can see, the situation is way worse. This player loses about 45% of the time and loses over $50,000 about 7% of the time. That’s pretty terrible, but maybe things get better with a larger sample? Here’s the data for 3000 Tourneys:

A 20% ROI player will be a loser over a 3,000 tourney sample almost 26% of the time. That’s much higher than I’d expected, and it’s the sort of number that should scare the shit out of prospective and current MTT professionals–If you want to play MTTs for a living, you better either put in a ton of volume, play really well, or be prepared to be a slave to variance (and nobody’s actually prepared for that).

Here’s lots of data for lots of situations (sorry for the ugly formatting):

ROI	Tourneys Played	Expected Earn	Chance of Loss	Chance of Earning < .5x EV	Chance of Earning > 1.5x EV	Chance of Earning > 2x EV
20%	100	$2,394.53	65%	67%	30%	28%
20%	500	$11,972.65	53%	60%	30%	25%
20%	1000	$23,945.30	42%	50%	36%	31%
20%	2000	$47,890.60	33%	44%	35%	25%
20%	5000	$119,726.50	20%	38%	30%	17%
40%	100	$4,789.06	61%	65%	27%	23%
40%	500	$23,945.30	37%	51%	31%	26%
40%	1000	$47,890.60	29%	44%	32%	23%
40%	2000	$95,781.20	14%	33%	28%	17%
40%	5000	$239,453.00	6%	26%	21%	8%
60%	100	$7,183.59	56%	63%	29%	24%
60%	500	$35,917.95	29%	49%	31%	25%
60%	1000	$71,835.90	20%	41%	27%	18%
60%	2000	$143,671.80	9%	33%	26%	13%
60%	5000	$359,179.50	1%	16%	17%	4%
80%	100	$9,578.12	51%	62%	25%	21%
80%	500	$47,890.60	24%	46%	28%	22%
80%	1000	$95,781.20	12%	36%	28%	16%
80%	2000	$191,562.40	5%	27%	23%	9%
80%	5000	$478,906.00	0%	13%	12%	2%
100%	100	$11,972.65	47%	61%	24%	18%
100%	500	$59,863.25	18%	44%	25%	20%
100%	1000	$119,726.50	9%	35%	25%	11%
100%	2000	$239,453.00	1%	24%	18%	5%
100%	5000	$598,632.50	0%	8%	10%	1%

There’s obviously a lot of information there, but some things jump out. In particular, life totally sucks if you’re a 20% ROI player. Even if you play 5k tourneys (which would be a decent sample for an entire year), you still have a 20% chance of losing money and a 38% chance of making less than ~60k. That totally sucks. Anyone except a true tourney god is more likely to lose over 100 tourneys than to win, which also sucks, and even a great tourney player has a decent chance of losing over 1k+ tournaments or to make only half her expected earn over 5k tournaments. Of course, the upside is good too, but the risk of losing money should be pretty scary to professional MTT players.

I should mention that this data lines up pretty well with my experience. I know a lot of professional MTT players. Losing months are incredibly common for them, and losing years happen fairly often. Years where they way underperform their expectations are typical. So, I hope people consider this before deciding to play (or continue playing) these for a living. People who are really good at MTTs, willing to put in tons of volume, and have huge bankrolls and strong stomachs might be better off playing large field MTTs professionally, but there aren’t many of those people. I think for the vast majority of people, it’s not a good idea (even for those who play very well).

You can find more data and some discussion about the distribution here and here. In future posts (probably coming soon, but I’m not making any promises), I’ll compare this data to cash games (both NLHE and PLO), STTs, and small field MTTs (i.e. 45s and 180s). I’ll also look into how stuff like this affects backing. So, if that stuff interests you, stay tuned or whatever. You can follow me on twitter if you want to know when my posts go up, or just subscribe to my RSS feed.

When I first got into poker, playing online was still relatively new. Veteran players that I met would laugh when I told them that not only was my first hand played online, but that my entire poker infancy was spent on the virtual felt. In fact, it wasn't until I had spent hundreds of hours playing poker online that I felt comfortable enough to make my way to a brick and mortar casino and sit with other human beings, totally vulnerable to their intimidating stares and table talk. Although I found live poker intriguing, the convenience of playing online while struggling to keep up with my college schedule and day job kept me glued to my laptop every night.
Now looking back at those first few months of playing online, I realize that they were hours very well spent. It's no secret these days that the new generation of poker players are typically born and bred on the internet, sometimes never even stepping inside a live card room until they are more experienced than players 20 years their senior. The modern pro usually has an impressive online poker resume, and for good reason. Because of the speed at which hands are dealt and completed, combined with being able to play more than one table at once (called “multi-tabling”), playing online poker is a great way to learn and improve your game. There are a wide variety of stakes offered, including micro-limit cash games (often as low as 1 cent/2 cent) and tournaments with tiny buy-ins that are perfect for the poker novice. When you add in the appeal of a smaller rake and not having to tip the dealer when you win a pot (not to mention being able to acceptably play in your pajamas), playing online poker is a pretty sweet deal.
So how do you make money while playing poker online? And how do some players manage to play online poker for a living? Good questions. Setting up your account and joining a table is a piece of cake, but actually turning a profit is another story altogether. Of course knowing the poker basics and understanding some strategy will help, but here are some tips I can offer on how to make money playing poker online:
Find a Game That You Can Beat
I know a lot of online pros, and while many of them make their living in different games, they have each found one or more specific avenues of poker that make them the most money. Some players focus on multi-table cash games, while others play sit-n-goes for hours on end. There are lots of pros who have found that tournaments are the best way to make their cash, and in recent years many have turned to playing heads-up. No matter what their specialty is, any serious pro knows that your best game is your bread and butter and is where you should put most of your focus (and your bankroll). Finding your niche will take some time and experimentation, but if you keep good records of your sessions, it will eventually become clear where your strengths lie.
Take Advantage of Online Tools
We have already discussed some of the benefits of playing online instead of heading to your local casino, but there are several more advantages that you should keep in mind. Mark my words: effectively utilizing online poker tools will make you more money.
If cash games are your thing, having good table selection is key. Keeping your eye on the lobby and watching for tables with large average pots and a high percentage of players seeing the flop is sure to increase your win rate. Once you get into an action game, make sure to take note of who the worst players are because this information will surely come in handy later. Most online poker rooms offer a 'find a player' feature which can be used to hunt for your favorite fish when they are playing online. Conversely, you usually will have the option to hide yourself from search (surprisingly most fish never seem to get the hint that they should probably be utilizing this option themselves).

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In recent years, it has become the norm to use tracking software while playing online. Programs like PokerTracker will collect statistics on every hand you play and regurgitate the data, allowing you to accurately analyze your opponents and your own game. If you are trying to win money online, it is a good investment to purchase this type of software because, well, everyone else who is trying to win already has it. When used correctly and efficiently, players will have an easier time making the split-second decisions that multi-tabling demands. These programs also aid in record keeping, improving your game, and finding which games are most profitable. In other words, this type of software is essential to making a decent wage online.

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Avoid Distractions

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Online poker allows you to be lazy; you can sit in your pajamas in the comfort of your home without a thought to your own hygiene or appearance. You can relax about proper table etiquette or dealing with an obnoxious guy to your right showing you pictures of his unfortunate looking baby. These are definitely perks of playing from home, but it can easy to go overboard with your laziness. Online poker takes discipline and focus, and it's not always easy with the distractions that are sure to be all around you. It is important to know what you can handle and what you can't, because everyone has a difference tolerance level for distractions. While it's usually a bad idea to watch television or read while playing online, lots of serious players occasionally surf the net and many listen to music. After playing professionally online for several years, I personally know that anything too distracting will affect my game (and therefore affects my profit) and I always have to be strict about not answering the phone while I am playing and limiting my web surfing.
The above mentioned tips are meant to be used in conjunction with a solid poker foundation. There is no substitute for experience, and if you are trying to make money playing online when you have never played poker before, then good luck. Although you are bound to win now and then, consistent money is not going to fall into your lap. If you want to learn how to make money playing poker online, you need to start playing small stakes, gather data, and gain experience. If you are honest with yourself and work hard on your game, the money will follow soon enough, and who knows - one day, you might even find yourself playing online poker for a living.